Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

doi:10.1007/s13593-012-0102-0

CORC > 中国农业科学院 > 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 > 气候变化研究室

	Climate change impact on China food security in 2050
	Ye, Liming 1,2; Xiong, Wei 3; Li, Zhengguo 1; Yang, Peng 1; Wu, Wenbin 1; Yang, Guixia 1; Fu, Yijiang 1,4; Zou, Jinqiu 1; Chen, Zhongxin 1; Van Ranst, Eric 2
刊名	AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
	2013
卷号	33 期号:2 页码:363-374
关键词	Food security Climate change Crop modeling Crop yield Scenario Food production Policy China
ISSN号	1774-0746
DOI	10.1007/s13593-012-0102-0
通讯作者	Ye, Liming
英文摘要	Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to -4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly.
学科主题	Agronomy ; GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY ; AGRONOMY
语种	英语
出版者	SPRINGER FRANCE
WOS记录号	WOS:000316013500008
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/19859]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_气候变化研究室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, MOA Key Lab Agriinformat, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Univ Ghent, Dept Geol & Soil Sci, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium 3.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 4.Renmin Univ China, Sch Continuing Educ, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ye, Liming,Xiong, Wei,Li, Zhengguo,et al. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050[J]. AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,2013,33(2):363-374.
APA	Ye, Liming.,Xiong, Wei.,Li, Zhengguo.,Yang, Peng.,Wu, Wenbin.,...&Tang, Huajun.(2013).Climate change impact on China food security in 2050.AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,33(2),363-374.
MLA	Ye, Liming,et al."Climate change impact on China food security in 2050".AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 33.2(2013):363-374.