Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?

doi:10.1016/j.agee.2014.06.014

CORC > 中国农业科学院 > 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 > 气候变化研究室

	Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?
	Xiong, Wei 1,2,3; van der Velde, Marijn 3; Holman, Ian P.4; Balkovic, Juraj 3,5; Lin, Erda 2; Skalsky, Rastislav 3; Porter, Cheryl 1; Jones, James 1; Khabarov, Nikolay 3; Obersteiner, Michael 3
刊名	AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT
	2014
卷号	196 页码:125-136
关键词	Yield stagnation Relative contribution Simulation Rice China
ISSN号	0167-8809
DOI	10.1016/j.agee.2014.06.014
通讯作者	Xiong, Wei
英文摘要	Worldwide evidence indicates a reduction in the rate of yield growth for many key food crops, but reasons for this remain unclear. Here, we quantitatively demonstrate the role and significance of different drivers (climate change, fertilizer use, change in rice cultivation area, and changes in crop varieties and management) in explaining rice yield development in China, through the use of two temporally and regionally calibrated crop models - EPIC and DSSAT. China's rice yield has increased from 4324 kg ha(-1) in 1981 to 6553 kg ha(-1) in 2010, with an evidently slowing growth rate over this time period. The observed flattening growth trend is well captured by both crop models. EPIC simulated a yield increase of 2024 kg ha(-1) up to 2010, with agricultural intensification together with increased application of chemical fertilizer and improved crop varieties and management dominating the growth, contributing 64% and 37% respectively, while changes in climate (2%) and cultivation area (-3%) contributed only minimally. The recent slowing rate of rice yield growth is largely interpreted as a decreasing relative contribution of fertilizer, that is not being compensated by relative benefits from improved varieties and management. We also find that adaptation to climate change may have contributed to the observed increase of rice yield by facilitating the relocation of rice growing areas and the adoption of improved rice cultivars. Crop model simulations demonstrate that additional yield increases could be achieved through the introduction of rice cultivars and management optimized for climate, suggesting viable options for reversing the slowing of rice yield growth. Moving towards an agriculture that utilizes climate benefits more smartly is one of the solutions to enhance future food supply in China. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
学科主题	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
WOS记录号	WOS:000343019000015
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://111.203.20.206/handle/2HMLN22E/19792]
专题	农业环境与可持续发展研究所_气候变化研究室
作者单位	1.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32600 USA 2.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 3.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 4.Cranfield Univ, Cranfield Water Sci Inst, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England 5.Comenius Univ, Fac Nat Sci, Bratislava 84215, Slovakia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiong, Wei,van der Velde, Marijn,Holman, Ian P.,et al. Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?[J]. AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT,2014,196:125-136.
APA	Xiong, Wei.,van der Velde, Marijn.,Holman, Ian P..,Balkovic, Juraj.,Lin, Erda.,...&Obersteiner, Michael.(2014).Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?.AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT,196,125-136.
MLA	Xiong, Wei,et al."Can climate-smart agriculture reverse the recent slowing of rice yield growth in China?".AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT 196(2014):125-136.