A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy

CORC > 科技战略咨询研究院 > 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 > 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2016年1月19日)

	A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy
	Zhang, XB ; Fan, Y ; Wei, YM
刊名	ENERGY POLICY
	2009
卷号	37 期号:11 页码:10,4397-4406
关键词	Stochastic dynamic programming Strategic petroleum reserve Optimization
ISSN号	0301-4215
中文摘要	China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently being prepared. But how large the optimal stockpile size for China should be, what the best acquisition strategies are, how to release the reserve if a disruption occurs, and other related issues still need to be studied in detail. In this paper, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model based on a total potential cost function of establishing SPRs to evaluate the optimal SPR policy for China. Using this model, empirical results are presented for the optimal size of China's SPR and the best acquisition and drawdown strategies for a few specific cases. The results show that with comprehensive consideration, the optimal SPR size for China is around 320 million barrels. This size is equivalent to about 90 days of net oil import amount in 2006 and should be reached in the year 2017, three years earlier than the national goal, which implies that the need for China to fill the SPR is probably more pressing; the best stockpile release action in a disruption is related to the disruption levels and expected continuation probabilities. The information provided by the results will be useful for decision makers. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
学科主题	Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000271824600023
公开日期	2012-11-12
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.casipm.ac.cn/handle/190111/4615]
专题	科技战略咨询研究院_中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, XB,Fan, Y,Wei, YM. A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2009,37(11):10,4397-4406.
APA	Zhang, XB,Fan, Y,&Wei, YM.(2009).A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy.ENERGY POLICY,37(11),10,4397-4406.
MLA	Zhang, XB,et al."A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy".ENERGY POLICY 37.11(2009):10,4397-4406.