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题名	中国农村与城市的婚姻行为; The Marriage Behaviors in Rural and Urban China
作者	赵文健
答辩日期	2010 ; 2010
导师	齐豪 ; 蔡宗武 ; 方颖
关键词	婚姻市场 Marriage Market 结婚概率 Marriage Probability 经济指标 Economics Indicators
英文摘要	本文利用“中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）”数据，运用实证方法研究中国农村与城市年轻人的婚姻行为问题。我们从半参数比例风险模型和数据本身特点出发，运用非参数方法估计了模型的基础风险概率，找到了按性别和城乡对数据分组的经济学和统计学依据，随后用比例风险模型估计了中国年轻男性和女性的结婚概率，并对农村与城市的婚姻行为差异给出经济解释。 我们的研究发现，中国年轻男性和女性的婚姻行为因农村与城市而存在显著差别，个人收入能力、父母收入水平和汽车指标对年轻人的结婚概率有重要影响。具体来说，农村女性的高收入能力与较低的父母收入水平会导致显著偏低的结婚概率，汽车对婚姻没有显著作用；城市女性收入能力和父母收入水平对于结婚概率没有影响，但是对汽车的拥有则会显著降低结婚概率。对于农村与城市的男性，个人收入能力和父母收入水平对结婚概率的作用趋于一致：前者降低结婚概率，后者提高结婚概率。汽车对结婚概率的作用则趋于相反：拥有汽车可以显著提高农村男性结婚概率，却降低了城市男性结婚概率。 模型设置检验和稳健性分析结果证明，半参数比例风险模型的估计结果对不同的模型设置是稳健的，并且进一步确认了估计结果的有效性。我们研究为婚姻经济学中家庭分工收益理论和婚姻市场搜寻理论提供了证据支持，并探讨了中国特殊国情和城乡社会制度安排对中国农村与城市的婚姻行为的重要影响。; This paper investigates the marriage behaviors of young people in rural and urban China. Using data of "China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS)", we estimate a Semi-parametric Proportional Hazard Model to explore the probability of transition into first marriages for young men and women in both cities and countryside. Inspired by the baseline hazards estimated by non-parametric technique, we implement a sample grouping strategy to analyze the marriage behaviors, and for the first time give the economic interpretation of the strategy. We find evidence that there are significant differences in marriage behaviors for young people between urban and rural China. Important roles for individual income, parental income and family assets (measured by owning of a car in this paper) are found in determining the timing of marriage. Particularly, rural women with higher earning ability and lower parental income are inclined to delay their marriage, no effect is found for owning a car on marriage. To the opposite, earning ability and parental income have no effects on marriage for urban women, while the family ownership of a car can significantly reduce the marriage probability. For young men in both urban and rural China, earning ability decreases the transition rates into marriage and parental income are to increase the marriage probability. Car plays a significantly different role for urban and rural men: it increases the probability of getting married in the countryside while decreases that in the city. We make a further step by implementing several specification tests and robust analysis on our estimation method and empirical findings. The test based on Schoenfeld Residuals show that the specification is properly assigned for the research and the Cox-Snell test documents the fitness of our model. We also make a discussion on influence of the special social institutional arrangements of Chinese Society on the first marriage behavior.; 学位：经济学硕士; 院系专业：王亚南经济研究院_西方经济学; 学号：27720061152812
语种	zh_CN
出处	http://210.34.4.13:8080/lunwen/detail.asp?serial=26733
内容类型	学位论文
源URL	[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/49515]
专题	王亚南院－学位论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	赵文健. 中国农村与城市的婚姻行为, The Marriage Behaviors in Rural and Urban China[D]. 2010, 2010.

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