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	Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import
	Lin, Boqiang ; Liu, Jianghua ; Yang, Yingchun
	2012-09
关键词	Energy structure adjustment CO2 intensity constraint Energy security constraint
英文摘要	Logistic and Gaussian Curves are adopted in this article to predict the coal production peak for Shanxi province, Henan province as well as the whole of China. According to the prediction based on the basic coal reserve data, coal production in China will reach its peak in the 2030 s while that of Shanxi and Henan provinces will be achieved by the 2040 s and 2020 s respectively. This article also assesses the influential factors of China's coal peak and revises the forecast of Lin and Liu (2010) about China's coal demand by taking the CO2 intensity constraint into consideration, and then predicting the corresponding coal import. The results show that China would import 983 million tonnes of coal in 2020; which takes as high as 27% of China's total coal consumption. This article demonstrates that even if China fulfills CO2 intensity constraint, the country's energy situation would still be grim as a result of its high GDP growth rate. Therefore, China has to consider both CO2 intensity and energy security constraints when establishing strategic energy plan. Finally, this article suggests an adjustment of energy structure by which those constraints can be addressed and further assesses the effect of the adjusted energy structure. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.; New Huadu Business School Research Fund; China Sustainable Energy Program [G-1203-15828]; Impact of Clean Energy Development and Power Tariff Reforms on Power Grid (Guangdong Power Grid Project); Ministry of Education Foundation [10GBJ013]
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.079]
专题	能源院－已发表论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lin, Boqiang,Liu, Jianghua,Yang, Yingchun. Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import[J],2012.
APA	Lin, Boqiang,Liu, Jianghua,&Yang, Yingchun.(2012).Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import..
MLA	Lin, Boqiang,et al."Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import".(2012).

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