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	中国经济周期与首次软着陆的基本特征分析; An Analysis on the Characteristics of the Economic Cycles and the Soft Landing for the First Time in China
	魏巍贤
	1998
关键词	经济周期 经济增长 通货膨胀 损失率 软着陆 business cycles economic growth inflation sacrifice ratio soft landing
英文摘要	研究了中国自改革开放以来的经济周期与首次实现“软”着陆的基本特征.中国经济的周期性行为主要反映在总需求过度膨胀方面，尽管这是中国经济周期的一般特征，但每个周期的具体表现都有所不同.通货膨胀率在不同周期下降的方式各不相同，反映出中国经济结构变化的程度和每个周期的反通胀的政策措施各不相同.尽管我们试图界定出第4周期在某一方面的突出特征，但第4周期的软着陆的实现却有力地说明，软着陆的出现是许多积极因素共同作用的结果; This paper investigates the macroeconomic cycles China has experienced since the onset of reform in the late 1970s.First, a detailed description of each of the four cycles since 1978 focuses on developments in key economic variables in each episode.Subsequently, employing a simple Philips curve model, an econometric investigation confirms the anecdotal evidence that the inflationary episodes have generally been associated with surges in aggregate demand.It is argued, however, that the factors behind the upswings and relative importance of the components of aggregate demand have differed across cycles. The most recent cycle stands out in having achieved a soft landing for the first time, combining a significant reduction in inflation with only a moderate slowing of growth.While the paper underscores the role of a number of structural and policy factors widely believed to have facilitated the soft landing, it argues that there is an additional important factor.The fourth cycles differed from previous cycles in that aggregate demand in the upswing was fueled mainly by a surge in investment spending.Although the strong investment demand initially increased aggregate demand more than supply - increasing inflationary pressures - it eventually led to an increase in capacity and potential output, which tended to dampen inflationary pressures and allowed the economy to settle into a soft landing despite continued strong real GDP growth.; 中国博士后科学基金
语种	zh_CN
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/114178]
专题	经济学院－已发表论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	魏巍贤. 中国经济周期与首次软着陆的基本特征分析, An Analysis on the Characteristics of the Economic Cycles and the Soft Landing for the First Time in China[J],1998.
APA	魏巍贤.(1998).中国经济周期与首次软着陆的基本特征分析..
MLA	魏巍贤."中国经济周期与首次软着陆的基本特征分析".(1998).

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