| 中国房价波动、股价波动对经济波动及居民消费影响的揭示; China Price Fluctuations of House, Fluctuations in the Stock Price Impact on Resident's Consumer | |
| 靳涛 ; 褚敏 | |
| 2015-06-15 | |
| 关键词 | 房价波动 股价波动 居民消费 经济波动 price fluctuations stock price volatility consumer economic fluctuations |
| 英文摘要 | 房价和股价波动如何影响宏观经济,又如何对居民消费产生影响？这是很多人都感兴趣却又让人迷惑的问题。本文运用相关性检验、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验对中国1998-2010年间中国房价、股价、居民消费和经济波动的特征及根源进行了较为全面的互动研究。结果发现,四者关系复杂,各变量均呈现出一定的顺周期特性且互相关联,房价和股价波动会早于经济波动和消费波动,这说明房地产和股票确实是宏观经济的晴雨表。但研究还发现,房价和股价波动对居民消费和经济波动冲击的影响力度不大,而居民消费与房价波动和经济波动之间均存在双向因果关系。而且,房价波动对经济波动的影响更为复杂,可通过消费和股价波动两个传导途径间接作用于经济波动。; House price and stocks price how they affect macroeconomic volatility, and how does it impact the consumer? This is a lot of people are interested in but confusing issue.In this paper, correlation test, variance decomposition and Granger causality test for 1998-2010 between the root of Chinese characteristics and prices, stock prices, consumer and economic fluctuations China conducted a more comprehensive study of the interaction.It was found that the relationship between the four complex variables were shown somepro-cyclical characteristics and interrelated, prices and price volatility will be earlier than the economic fluctuations and consumption volatility, indicating that the real estate and the stock is indeed macroeconomic barometer.But the study also found that prices and volatility of consumption and economic impact of fluctuations in the intensity of the impact of population has little, while two-way causal relationship existed between the consumer and the price fluctuations and economic fluctuations.Moreover, the impact of price fluctuations on economic fluctuations more complex, indirect effects may fluctuate two pathways through the consumption and price fluctuations in the economy.; 广义虚拟经济研究专项资助项目[项目编号:GX2012—1003(Y)] |
| 语种 | zh_CN |
| 内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 源URL | [http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/113732]  |
| 专题 | 经济学院－已发表论文 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 靳涛,褚敏. 中国房价波动、股价波动对经济波动及居民消费影响的揭示, China Price Fluctuations of House, Fluctuations in the Stock Price Impact on Resident's Consumer[J],2015. |
| APA | 靳涛,&褚敏.(2015).中国房价波动、股价波动对经济波动及居民消费影响的揭示.. |
| MLA | 靳涛,et al."中国房价波动、股价波动对经济波动及居民消费影响的揭示".(2015). |
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