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	宏观经济波动对我国入境旅游发展的影响分析; Impact of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on China's Inbound Tourism
	乔宁宁 ; 陈建宝
	2013-02-06
关键词	宏观经济波动 入境旅游 VAR模型 分位数回归 macroeconomic fluctuation inbound tourism VAR model quantile regression
英文摘要	文章以分析1995~2011年我国宏观经济波动和入境旅游波动的周期性特征为基础,建立包含入境旅游波动、宏观经济波动、汇率变动和居民消费者价格指数变动等变量在内的向量自回归模型,检验了入境旅游波动对于宏观经济波动、汇率变动和通货膨胀的反应,进一步采用分位数回归方法研究了宏观经济波动等因素对入境旅游发展的影响。结果表明:(1)1995~2011年以来,我国宏观经济波动的主周期长度为6年,入境旅游收入波动的主周期长度为2.57年,入境旅游呈现较短的主周期;(2)宏观经济波动和汇率变动对入境旅游发展具有显著的影响,而通货膨胀的影响作用有限;(3)在入境旅游波动的不同水平下,宏观经济波动和汇率变动对入境旅游发展的影响力度存在明显差异,其中包含了更丰富的信息。; China's inbound tourism possesses unique advantages based on the country's rich tourism resources and huge tourist markets.However,as a part of the industrial structure,the tourism economy is inevitably affected by various fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment.By examining the cyclic character of macroeconomic and inbound tourism fluctuations,this study used a vector autoregression model to analyze the response of inbound tourism to fluctuations in major macroeconomic variables,including macroeconomic fluctuations,volatility of exchange rates,and the consumer price index.Further,we also use the quantile regression method to study the impact of macroeconomic volatility and other factors on the development of inbound tourism.The major conclusions of this study are as follows.First,China's macroeconomic fluctuations were characterized by major 6-year cycles over the period from 1995 to 2011.In addition,there were shorter cycles of 2.57 years for inbound tourism.This clearly indicates that inbound tourism is affected by a variety of complex factors,which add to the instability of inbound tourism development.Second,through transmission mechanisms between various economic shocks and fluctuation in the number of tourists,our results imply that macroeconomic volatility and exchange-rate volatility have a significant impact on the development of inbound tourism;the effect of inflation is limited.Meanwhile,the impulse response reflects the fact that China's inbound tourism is vulnerable to its own internal problems: there are many uncertain factors within the industry itself that have a considerable effect on its development.Finally the quantile regression model indicates that the influence of macroeconomic volatility and exchange-rate volatility on inbound tourism exhibits typical gradual characteristic properties.When the level of inbound tourism fluctuations is very high,the significance of macroeconomic fluctuations on tourism diminishes.Furthermore,since tourism is an industry,its growth is bound up with the macroeconomic environment.In the future,China's tourism industry will inevitably be influenced by a series of complex factors both within the country and overseas.However,some factors,such as economic crises and outbreaks of disease,do not undergo regular cycles or periodic changes.With regard to the overall development of China's inbound tourism,macroeconomic fluctuation is unquestionably an important systemic factor that should not be overlooked,as was evident from the results of present study.To provide a rational basis for determining the economic value of the current state of tourism development in China,we used a case study to explore the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on inbound tourism.Our conclusions could have important implications for policy makers in coordinating development between the macroeconomy and tourism.On the one hand,it is necessary to take into account changes in the economic cycle as an area of primary focus.Further,based on economic trends,the structure of tourism products needs to be continually updated so as to guarantee the supply of varied tourism products.On the other hand,tourism authorities should be committed to developing a diversified tourism market.To avoid or alleviate unforeseen threats to the industry,tourism authorities should improve their awareness of risk and establish a system of tourism crisis management.
语种	zh_CN
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/112674]
专题	经济学院－已发表论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	乔宁宁,陈建宝. 宏观经济波动对我国入境旅游发展的影响分析, Impact of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on China's Inbound Tourism[J],2013.
APA	乔宁宁,&陈建宝.(2013).宏观经济波动对我国入境旅游发展的影响分析..
MLA	乔宁宁,et al."宏观经济波动对我国入境旅游发展的影响分析".(2013).

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