Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

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	Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector
	Lin, Boqiang ; Xie, Chunping ; Lin BQ(林伯强)
刊名	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.017
关键词	TIME-SERIES UNIT-ROOT LONG-RUN COINTEGRATION APPROACH ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ERROR-CORRECTION GASOLINE DEMAND SCENARIOS SYSTEM ELASTICITIES
英文摘要	National Social Science Foundation of China [12ZD059]; Ministry of Education [10GBJ013]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [71203186]; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2010221051]; National Science Foundation for Disting; China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/90167]
专题	经济学院－已发表论文
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lin, Boqiang,Xie, Chunping,Lin BQ. Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector[J]. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.017.
APA	Lin, Boqiang,Xie, Chunping,&林伯强.
MLA	Lin, Boqiang,et al."Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector".http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.017