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人民币兑新台币的均衡汇率:分析框架与实证检验; Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB against NTD: Theoretical Analysis & Empirical Test
吴国培 ; 杨少芬 ; 潘再见
2014-05-01
关键词均衡汇率 人民币 新台币 汇率失调
英文摘要目前,国内学术界对人民币兑新台币的均衡汇率的研究成果较少,而且在理论基础和实证检验方面均存在值得商榷之处。本文选择以购买力平价理论为基础,借鉴lEVAn、COuHArdE&luOng(2006)的做法构建一个包含内外均衡的理论分析框架,推导出金融因素、需求因素和供给因素是均衡汇率的决定因素。本文进一步选择资本回报率、净出口占gdP比重、全要素生产率分别代表金融因素、需求因素和供给因素,并基于海峡两岸1994~2012年的数据,测算人民币兑新台币的当前均衡汇率和当前均衡汇率失调程度、长期均衡汇率和长期汇率失调程度。最后,本文提供促进人民币兑新台币实现均衡汇率的若干政策启示。; So far less research results have been found in domestic academic circles regarding equilibrium exchange rate of RMB against NTD,and the relevant theoretical foundation and empirical test are yet to be discussed.Based on the theory of purchasing power parity and by the experience of LeVan and Couharde & Luong,the paper attempts to build a theoretical and analytical framework with internal and external equilibrium to infer that the decisive factors for equilibrium exchange rate are financial factor,demand factor and supply factor.This paper further selects return on invested capital,net exports as a share of GDP and total factor productivity as financial factor,demand factor and supply factor respectively to measure RMB- to- NTD current equilibrium exchange rate / current equilibrium exchange rate misalignment and long- term equilibrium exchange rate / long- term equilibrium exchange rate misalignment based upon the 1994- 2012 data across the Taiwan Straits.In the end, it provides some policy implications for how to achieve an equilibrium exchange rate of RMB against NTD.
语种zh_CN
内容类型期刊论文
源URL[http://dspace.xmu.edu.cn/handle/2288/103184]  
专题管理学院-已发表论文
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
吴国培,杨少芬,潘再见. 人民币兑新台币的均衡汇率:分析框架与实证检验, Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB against NTD: Theoretical Analysis & Empirical Test[J],2014.
APA 吴国培,杨少芬,&潘再见.(2014).人民币兑新台币的均衡汇率:分析框架与实证检验..
MLA 吴国培,et al."人民币兑新台币的均衡汇率:分析框架与实证检验".(2014).
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