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	数据估算与历史真实——中国史中GDP估算研究评述
	仲伟民 ; 邱永志 ; Zhong Weimin ; Qiu Yongzhi
	2016-03-30 ; 2016-03-30
关键词	中国史 GDP研究 国民所得 计量分析 Chinese history GDP studies national income quantitative analysis F222.33 K207
其他题名	Data Estimation and Historical Reality——A Review of Studies of Historical GDP Estimation in China
中文摘要	近年来,中国史中GDP的估算研究引起了学界的高度关注,并由此引起了热烈讨论。关于国民所得、国民收入等宏观经济核算的研究,最早可追溯至上个世纪三四十年代,学人多承认由巫宝三等人率先开创。此后,关于这一方面的研究成果不断,但估算研究时段主要集中在中国的近现代史。最早把GDP估算研究带入中国古代史领域的是外国学者保罗·贝洛赫、安格斯·麦迪森等人,但是他们较为粗略式的估算引起了学界不断的质疑,并直接或间接地促成了此次古代经济史领域GDP研究的小高潮。相关研究引起了学界关于GDP研究是否适用于中国历史、是否存在误区、跨地区跨时段的换算方法优劣性、公式模型及其基础资料是否严谨、数据统计与历史真实等问题的争议。而随着争议的展开,研究也越来越深入。无论是作为方法论而言,还是意欲构筑经济史学科未来基础性的统计而言,中国史中的GDP研究都值得期待和展望。; Estimation of historical GDP in China has attracted much attention and resulted in heated discussions in recent years.Studies of macro-economic accounts in relation with national income were conducted in as early as the 1930sand the 1940sin China.Wu Baosan was believed to be the leading one of the earliest Chinese scholars devoted to this field. The following researchers mainly concentrated on early modern and modern times in their studies.GDP estimation was first introduced to China by foreign scholars such as Paul Bairoch and Angus Maddison.However they were questioned by other researchers for their inaccurate estimates.Such questioning leads to,directly or indirectly,the current intense interest in historical studies of GDP in pre-modern China.Researchers disagreed such questions as applicability of GDP estimation to historical studies of China,the possible pitfalls in such studies,the pros and cons of the comparison across time and space,reliability of equations,models and basic data used in the studies,and relations between statistical data and historical reality.Lively debates have led to more and deeper explorations.We may expect more developments in historical GDP studies in both terms of methodology and the construction of statistical foundation for future explorations into China's economic history.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lib.tsinghua.edu.cn/ir/item.do?handle=123456789/147571]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	仲伟民,邱永志,Zhong Weimin,等. 数据估算与历史真实——中国史中GDP估算研究评述[J],2016, 2016.
APA	仲伟民,邱永志,Zhong Weimin,&Qiu Yongzhi.(2016).数据估算与历史真实——中国史中GDP估算研究评述..
MLA	仲伟民,et al."数据估算与历史真实——中国史中GDP估算研究评述".(2016).

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