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	新常态下可比居民储蓄率的变动趋势研究
	厉克奥博 ; 潘庆中 ; 伏霖 ; Keaobo Li ; Qingzhong Pan ; Lin Fu
	2016-03-30 ; 2016-03-30
关键词	居民储蓄率 可比调整 误差修正模型 倒U型变动 F832.22
其他题名	A Study of Comparable Household Saving Rates in the "New Normal" China
中文摘要	居民储蓄是中国经济快速增长阶段投资资金的主要来源,居民储蓄率更是经济增长模型中的关键指标。但目前国内宏观经济分析中常用的储蓄率,在计算方法和统计口径上与国际惯用的储蓄率存在不一致,国际比较数据的可比调整问题尤为关键;更重要地,随着转型升级和结构调整的深化,新常态下未来居民储蓄率有可能呈现新的变化趋势。本文在参考前人居民储蓄率可比调整研究成果的基础上,利用2000—2011年资金流量表(实物交易),对最近十二年的中国居民储蓄率进行了可比调整,结果表明,调整后的居民储蓄率比调整前平均低了7.22个百分点,调整后的居民储蓄率十年均值为27.29%,与日韩经济起飞时的居民储蓄率相差不大;在可比校正的基础上,通过误差修正模型(ECM)对未来十年的居民储蓄率变动进行了预测,发现人均GDP增长率6%以上时,储蓄率仍然会持续提高,人均GDP增长率6%以下时,中国居民储蓄率呈现倒U型的变动趋势。"十三五"时期,7%~8%的增长区间将成为新常态,基于此我们预测到2020年中国可比居民储蓄率仍将小幅上涨。更长期的未来,随着中国人均GDP水平的持续提高,居民储蓄率将会随着经济增长的进一步放缓而呈现倒U型逆转。; Household saving is the main source of supporting fast growing investments in China,and household saving rate is a key indicator of the economic growth model.However,the methods of calculating saving rate that usually used for domestic macroeconomic analysis are different from the practices used in other countries;thus,making adjustments to the data of Chinese household saving rates has become very important.More importantly,following the increase of the transformation and the deepening of the adjustment of the structure,while the Chinese economic development is going through a new periods of transition,future household savings rates will show the trend of transformation.This paper used2000—2011 chart of flow of funds when referring to the foundation of the previous household consumption rates comparable adjustment research results.For the past12 years of households savings rate,we implemented a comparable adjustment,with the results showing that after the adjustments,the households savings rate is lower than the previous average by 7.22 percent.After the adjustment,the household savings rate for ten years average increased to 27.29%,a relatively close to Korea when the Korean economy began to experience rapid growth.Using the ECM modeling with the basic comparatives,we conducted a forecast for the next 10 years of household savings rate changes.We discovered that when the average GDP rate is above 6%,future household savings rates will continue to increase,however,if the average GDP is below 6%,the house holds savings rates will show a U-shape trend.According to the forecasts for the economy in the future,we argue that it would be a slight growth for Chinese household savings rates at the beginning of the "New Normal",and then it would be reverse the trend of growth and show a U-shape.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lib.tsinghua.edu.cn/ir/item.do?handle=123456789/145826]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	厉克奥博,潘庆中,伏霖,等. 新常态下可比居民储蓄率的变动趋势研究[J],2016, 2016.
APA	厉克奥博,潘庆中,伏霖,Keaobo Li,Qingzhong Pan,&Lin Fu.(2016).新常态下可比居民储蓄率的变动趋势研究..
MLA	厉克奥博,et al."新常态下可比居民储蓄率的变动趋势研究".(2016).

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