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	我国粮食供需的分析与预测
	赵萱 ; 邵一珊 ; ZHAO Xuan ; SHAO Yi-shan
	2016-03-30 ; 2016-03-30
关键词	粮食供需 预测 粮食流通 扩大生产 food supply and demand forecast food circulation production expansion F326.11
其他题名	Analysis and Forecast of China's Grain Supply and Demand
中文摘要	随着我国人口的持续增长,粮食需求呈现刚性增长;而随着工业化、城镇化的快速发展,非农业建设用地不断增加,我国的耕地供给不断减少。未来一段时期,我国将面临越来越大的粮食短缺问题,保障粮食安全面临着严峻的挑战。正是在这样的情况下,本文探讨了粮食的内涵介绍了我国粮食需求的构成情况;采用GARCH模型、ARMA模型对我国未来的粮食供需情况进行了预测。通过对近年来的数据分析发现确实存在粮食短缺,并在此基础上提出了保持合理的粮食进口规模与进出口品种结构、重视和发展本国粮食生产、搞活粮食流通体制的政策建议。; The continuous growth of China's population is making its food demand growth more and more rigid; while the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization is resulting in a rapid increase of the non-agricultural construction land and thus decrease of the arable land. For a period of time in the future, China will face an increasingly serious food shortage, and its food security is facing the same challenges. It is in consideration of such a background that this paper first investigates the connotation of food and the composition of China's food demand, and then applies GARCH model and ARMA model to make a forecast of the future status of China's food demand and supply. Via the analysis of recent data, this paper did find a food shortage of China, and on the basis of it proposes several policy recommendations consisting of maintaining a reasonable scale of food import and product structure of food import and export, concentrating on and developing national food production and livening the food circulation system.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.lib.tsinghua.edu.cn/ir/item.do?handle=123456789/145629]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	赵萱,邵一珊,ZHAO Xuan,等. 我国粮食供需的分析与预测[J],2016, 2016.
APA	赵萱,邵一珊,ZHAO Xuan,&SHAO Yi-shan.(2016).我国粮食供需的分析与预测..
MLA	赵萱,et al."我国粮食供需的分析与预测".(2016).

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