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	Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change
	Jiquan Zhou ; Yi Liu ; Jining Chen ; Fanxian Yu
	2010-10-12 ; 2010-10-12
关键词	Theoretical or Mathematical/ agriculture pollution statistics stochastic processes town and country planning/ uncertainty analysis aquatic environmental impacts urban land use change strategic environmental assessment stochastic simulation statistics environmental pollution agriculture environmental risk environmental pressure urban planning/ E0230 Environmental issues E0260 Social and political issues E0210J Statistics E0120D Planning
中文摘要	Uncertainties hamper the implementation of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). In order to quantitatively characterize the uncertainties of environmental impacts, this paper develops an integrated methodology through uncertainty analysis on land use change, which combines the scenario analysis approach, stochastic simulation technique, and statistics. Dalian city in China was taken as a case study in the present work. The results predict that the Fuzhou River poses the highest environmental pollution risk with a probability of 89.63% for COD in 2020. Furthermore, the Biliu River, Fuzhou River, Zhuang River, and Dasha River have 100% probabilities for NH/sub 3/-N. NH/sub 3/-N is a more critical pollutant than COD for all rivers. For COD, industry is the critical pollution source for all rivers except the Zhuang River. For NH/sub 3/-N, agriculture is the critical pollution source for the Biliu River, Yingna River, and Dasha River, sewage for the Fuzhou River and Zhuang River, and industry for the Dengsha River. This methodology can provide useful information, such as environmental risk, environmental pressure, and extremely environmental impact, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can also help to ascertain the significance of each pollution source and its priority for control in urban planning.
语种	英语
出版者	Springer Verlag ; Germany
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/79839]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiquan Zhou,Yi Liu,Jining Chen,et al. Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change[J],2010, 2010.
APA	Jiquan Zhou,Yi Liu,Jining Chen,&Fanxian Yu.(2010).Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change..
MLA	Jiquan Zhou,et al."Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change".(2010).

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