| 犯罪活动在一天内的发生时间规律 | |
| 陈鹏 ; 疏学明 ; 颜峻 ; 袁宏永 ; CHEN Peng ; SHU Xueming ; YAN Jun ; YUAN Hongyong | |
| 2010-06-10 ; 2010-06-10 | |
| 关键词 | 犯罪预测 时间序列 聚类分析 crime forecasting time series clustering D917 |
| 其他题名 | Timing of criminal activities during the day |
| 中文摘要 | 为了给公安部门出警预测提供参考,研究了在一天内的犯罪活动发生时间规律。采集了中国的某市2002—2003年间的5.6万余条报警记录,采用Gini集中指数,分析了一天内不同时段,抢劫、抢夺、诈骗、盗窃和侵权等5类犯罪活动发生次数,并对在一天之内不同时段的犯罪活动发生率序列进行了层次聚类分析。结果表明:诈骗犯罪活动具有明显的时间选择性;而盗窃和侵权犯罪活动在一天之内分布的比较平均。抢劫、抢夺和侵权犯罪的发生时间规律较为一致,而盗窃则与诈骗犯罪的发生时间规律比较相似。; The time regularity of criminal activities was investigated to help police forecast crimes,provide warnings,deploy police resources.Criminal data for 56 000 incidents in 2002 and 2003 were collected from the criminal record of a China city.The occurrence of criminal activities including robbery,purse snatching,fraud,burglary and assault were analyzed with the Gini index.The crime frequencies were classified by hierarchical cluster analysis.The results show that the fraud crimes are very time selective,while burglaries and assaults occur uniformly throughout the day.The timing of robberies,purse snatching and assaults are identical,while the other two crimes have similar pattens.; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70773069) |
| 语种 | 中文 ; 中文 |
| 内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 源URL | [http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/63160]  |
| 专题 | 清华大学 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 陈鹏,疏学明,颜峻,等. 犯罪活动在一天内的发生时间规律[J],2010, 2010. |
| APA | 陈鹏.,疏学明.,颜峻.,袁宏永.,CHEN Peng.,...&YUAN Hongyong.(2010).犯罪活动在一天内的发生时间规律.. |
| MLA | 陈鹏,et al."犯罪活动在一天内的发生时间规律".(2010). |
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