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	售电市场变化特点的动态偏离份额分析法
	庄彦 ; 康重庆 ; 贾俊国 ; 林弘宇 ; ZHUANG Yan ; KANG Chong-qing ; JIA Jun-guo ; LIN Hong-yu
	2010-06-10 ; 2010-06-10
关键词	售电市场 电力营销 动态偏离份额分析 竞争力 power sale markets power marketing dynamic shift-share analysis (DSSA) competitiveness TM731 F407.61
其他题名	Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis on the Variation Feature of Power Sale Markets
中文摘要	为了从时间、地区、结构、竞争力等不同角度深入地揭示售电市场的变化规律,文章以区域经济和产业结构分析中成功使用的偏离份额法分析方法为基础,建立了应用于售电市场的动态偏离份额分析法。该方法在保留传统静态分析法已经具有的份额分量、结构分量和竞争分量这些特点的基础上,重点进行了时间维度的拓展,由此,不但揭示了各分解因素对增长总量的贡献,还展现了各因素在不同时间发展变化程度的差异状况。通过在售电市场分析中的应用,表明该方法不但可以从全国或区域层面把握各地区售电市场的发展特点和趋势,也可以揭示不同售电类别的变化特征,更可以量化地分析不同年度的竞争力和贡献率,由此为电力营销分析提供了新的手段和思路。; To reveal the variation feature of power sale markets from viewpoints of time, space, structure and competitiveness in depth, based on the successful applications of traditional shift-share analysis (SSA) in regional economics and industry structure analysis, the authors develop a dynamic shift-share analysis (DSSA) and apply it to power sale marketing analysis. On the basis of reserving the characteristic of traditional SSA, that is, the economic growth is decomposed into three factors: the growth effect, structural effect and competitive effect, in DSSA the extension of analysis in time dimension is emphasized, herefrom, not only the contribution of each decomposed factor to the total increment, but also the differences of variation extents of all factors in different time periods are revealed. The results of applying DSSA method in power sale market show that by use of this method the developing features and trends of power sale markets can be grasped in nationwide or regional level as well as the variation features of different power sale sectors can be revealed. In addition, by means of DSSA method the quantificational analysis on contributions and competitiveness in different years can be realized also. Therefore, dynamic shift-share analysis could be a right-hand tool for power marketing analysis.; 霍英东教育基金会资助项目(No.104020)。~~
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/62382]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	庄彦,康重庆,贾俊国,等. 售电市场变化特点的动态偏离份额分析法[J],2010, 2010.
APA	庄彦.,康重庆.,贾俊国.,林弘宇.,ZHUANG Yan.,...&LIN Hong-yu.(2010).售电市场变化特点的动态偏离份额分析法..
MLA	庄彦,et al."售电市场变化特点的动态偏离份额分析法".(2010).

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