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	基于Logistic回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析
	刘瑞 ; 朱道林 ; 朱战强 ; 杨文治 ; LIU Rui ; ZHU Daolin ; ZHU Zhanqiang ; YANG Wenzhi
	2010-06-08 ; 2010-06-08
关键词	城市建设用地扩张 驱动力 Logistic回归模型 德州市 Urban sprawl Driving forces Logistic regression model Dezhou city F293.2 F224
其他题名	Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Sprawl in Dezhou City Based on a Logistic Regression Model
中文摘要	城市建设用地扩张驱动力的研究是城市内在演化规律研究的重要组成部分,可为指导土地合理利用,控制建设用地规模,保护生态环境提供科学依据。本文以山东省德州市为研究区域,基于GIS以及相关数理统计软件,在分析了1996年～2005年城市建设用地扩张动态,总结其时空扩张特征的基础上,使用Logistic回归模型从空间角度深入分析了德州市城市建设用地扩张的驱动力。研究结果表明,1996年以来德州市城市建设用地扩张明显,从空间形态上看,主要围绕原有城市建设用地向四周扩张,其中向原有城市以东扩张是主要扩张方向;德州市城市建设用地扩张受外部社会经济发展和地方制度政策,以及内部自然区位共同作用而发生的,其中反映政府制度政策的城市规划是城市建设用地扩张最主要的驱动因素,其次是经济发展,最后才是人口的变动。; Sprawling urban development is a major driving force for landscape fragmentation and the loss of agricultural land. So it is very useful and meaningful to analyze the processes and characteristics of urban sprawl to find out the driving forces of the expansion. This may provide us with a scientific basis to rationally utilize land resources, efficiently control the amount of land for construction, and to effectively protect our eco-environment. This paper thus aimed at developing an approach to finding out the driving forces of urban sprawl in Dezhou City located in Shandong Province, China. The authors analyzed the processes and characteristics of urban sprawl in period of 1996 to 2005 with a geographic information system (GIS), and then quantified the relationship between urban sprawl and internal and external factors using a Logistic regression model from a perspective of the spatial correlation. In this paper, 14 internal and external driving factors were selected. The internal driving forces include 5 factors regarding natural environmental conditions and locations; the external driving forces include 9 factors relative to demographic changes, economic development and public policies made by the government. Results indicated that the urban area of Dezhou City has expanded approximately 1.5 times for the past nine years, showing that the land expansion intensity index and the average annual expansion intensity index were 10.07% and 1.12%, respectively. From a spatial point of view, the expansion was generally based on the original distribution of the urban area, with showing that the east was a primary direction of the expansion. The Logistic regression model showed that the relative operating characteristics (ROC) test value was around 0.937, meaning that the model had a relatively strong ability to detect main explanatory drivers for urban sprawl in Dezhou City. It was found that the urban sprawl in Dezhou City was closely related to external factors like economic development, social progress, and policies of the government. In addition, it was also influenced by some internal factors such as the natural condition and geography location. Among the external factors, the urban planning, which represents the government policy, is the most important driving force, the second one is the economic development and geography location, and the third one is the change of population. Although this model has a better ability to interpret urban sprawl if the expansion areas have great differences, it has fewer opportunities to explain these expansions under the conditions of small differences in different expansion areas.; 国家科技支撑计划重大项目(编号:2006BAJ05A03)
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/52366]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	刘瑞,朱道林,朱战强,等. 基于Logistic回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析[J],2010, 2010.
APA	刘瑞.,朱道林.,朱战强.,杨文治.,LIU Rui.,...&YANG Wenzhi.(2010).基于Logistic回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析..
MLA	刘瑞,et al."基于Logistic回归模型的德州市城市建设用地扩张驱动力分析".(2010).

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