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	基于延迟坐标状态空间重构的短期交通流预测研究
	王进 ; 史其信 ; Wang Jin ; Shi Qixin
	2010-06-07 ; 2010-06-07
关键词	短期交通流预测 嵌入维数 相关维数 延迟坐标状态空间重构 混沌 时间延迟 short-term traffic flow prediction embedding dimensions correlation dimensions delay coordinates phase space reconstruction chaos time delay U491.14
其他题名	THE STUDY OF THE SHORT-TERM TRAFFIC FLOW PREDICTIONBASED ON DELAY COORDINATES PHASE SPACE RECONSTRUCTION METHOD
中文摘要	交通系统是一个有人参与的、时变的、开放的复杂巨系统,具有高度的非线性和不确定性。混沌理论研究非线性动力学系统随时间变化的规律,本文尝试用混沌理论对交通流进行分析和预测。本文首先对交通流特性进行了分析,给出了交通流基本参数流量-速度-占有率的关系,并得出交通流特性平日和周末不同,应分别进行分析和预测的结论。本文分别用互信息法和G—P算法确定了重构相空间中的重要参数(时间延迟、嵌入维和相关维), 在此基础上重构延迟坐标状态空间。并用基于相空间重构的加权一阶局域预测法进行短期交通流预测,预测时间间隔为5分钟。用从上海延安路高架桥的感应线圈采集到的每隔5分钟的交通流数据进行验证,得到的预测结果和实际数据的误差很小,精度较高。因此,基于延迟坐标状态空间重构的短期交通流预测的方法是可行的,且结论是可信的。; Transportation system is a human-joined, changeable, open and complicated huge system. It is high nonlinear and uncertainty. Chaos theory studied on the rules of the nonlinear dynamic systems. This paper tries the chaos theory to analyze and predict the traffic flow. This paper analyze the traffic flow character first, plot the three dimensional figure of volume-average speed-average occupancy. We conclude that traffic flow character in weekdays and weekends is different and they should be analyzed independently. We use the mutual information method to determine the time delayand the G-P method to determine the embedding dimensionand correlation dimension. And also we reconstruct the phase space. Based on the phase space, we predict the traffic average speed in a short-term use the first-order weighting local approximation method. The experiment is performed for inductance loop data collected in five minutes interval from the viaduct of Yan'an road in Shanghai in China. We predict in 5 minutes. And at last our study concludes that techniques based on phase space reconstruction can be used to predict the traffic flow in a short-term. Furthermore, the prediction result is accurate and reliable.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/45752]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王进,史其信,Wang Jin,等. 基于延迟坐标状态空间重构的短期交通流预测研究[J],2010, 2010.
APA	王进,史其信,Wang Jin,&Shi Qixin.(2010).基于延迟坐标状态空间重构的短期交通流预测研究..
MLA	王进,et al."基于延迟坐标状态空间重构的短期交通流预测研究".(2010).

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