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	流动性过剩与石油市场风险
	管清友 ; Guan Qingyou
	2010-06-07 ; 2010-06-07
关键词	流动性过剩 石油市场 全球经济失衡 石油美元 风险 F822.0 F416.22
其他题名	Excess liquidity and risk in the oil market
中文摘要	在世界经济强劲增长和全球流动性过剩的大背景下,国际原油价格进入了新一轮上升周期。石油出口国受益于油价上涨,产生了大量的石油美元,国内资产价格膨胀。国际金融体系的变化则增加了油价上涨的可持续性。石油美元被大量储蓄起来降低了总需求,也加剧了全球经济失衡。美元未来走势、流动性过剩下投机资本的盛行给石油市场的未来增加了不确定性,石油-美元计价机制面临的挑战、衍生工具风险的影响和次级债危机引发的金融动荡也预示着石油市场风险增大。次级债危机引发的金融动荡表明,流动性过剩的状况是完全可能逆转的。由于虚拟经济的膨胀,全球经济环境与以往大为不同,局部的金融危机很可能引发全球性的危机,而这种全球性的危机很难被补救和控制。一旦流动性出现逆转,对石油市场的打击将是巨大的。; In a climate of strong world economic growth and excess liquidity, oil prices are entering a new upswing. This rise has benefited oil exporters, generating vast quantities of petrodollars and inflating domestic assets prices. Changes in the international financial system, meanwhile, are helping to sustain rising oil prices. The large quantity of petrodollars put into savings has reduced aggregate demand and aggravated global economic imbalance. Future trends in the U.S dollar, along with the venture capital prevalent under excess liquidity, mean an even more undertain future for the global oil market. In addition, challenges faced by oil-dollar pricing mechanisms, the impact of derivatives risks, and financial turbulence in the wake of the subprime lending crisis all point to greater risks to come in the oil market. The financial turbulence created by the subprime lending crisis reveals the possibility of a complete reversal in the excess liquidity situation. The expanding virtual economy has altered the global economic landscape; it is now entirely possible for a local financial crisis to trigger a global crisis, a situation difficult to repair or contain. A reversal in liquidity conditions would deliver an enormous shock to the oil market.
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/38224]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	管清友,Guan Qingyou. 流动性过剩与石油市场风险[J],2010, 2010.
APA	管清友,&Guan Qingyou.(2010).流动性过剩与石油市场风险..
MLA	管清友,et al."流动性过剩与石油市场风险".(2010).

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