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	冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法
	张雷 ; 李一兵 ; ZHANG Lei ; LI Yi-bing
	2010-06-04 ; 2010-06-04
关键词	交通安全 事故再现 可靠性 冗余信息 Edgeworth级数 主观赋权法 traffic safety accident reconstruction reliability redundant information Edgeworth series subjective weighting method U491.31
其他题名	Comprehensive-model method of reliability analysis for traffic accident reconstruction with redundant information
中文摘要	为了评价交通事故再现分析结果的可信性,将高阶矩技术、随机摄动法和Edgeworth级数与交通事故再现分析技术相结合,提出了交通事故再现可靠性分析方法,给出了再现分析结果的置信度和置信区间。针对具有冗余信息的交通事故再现分析,应用主观赋权法、可靠性分析技术和优化求解技术,提出了冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法。最后通过实际交通事故案例进行了事故再现分析。研究结果表明:该方法在考虑各基本因素客观不确定性的基础上同时结合了专家经验,与各基本再现分析模型计算结果相比,其均值趋于各基本再现分析模型的中间值,其变化范围(标准差)最小,再现分析结果更具科学性和准确性。; In order to estimate the creditability of traffic accident reconstruction analysis,a reconstruction reliability analysis method was put forward which combined high-order moment technology,probabilistic perturbation method,Edgeworth series and reconstruction analysis technology.The confidence interval and confidence of reconstruction analysis result were obtained as the estimate indexes of the creditability.For traffic accident reconstruction reliability analysis with redundant information,a comprehensive-model method was proposed through integrating subjective weighting method,reliability analysis technology and optimization technology.A practical traffic accident case was investigated to verify the method's feasibility and validity.Study result indicates that the mean calculated by comprehensive-model method tends to the intermediate value of basic reconstruction analysis models,and the change range is minimum.So the reconstruction analysis result is more precise and scientific by using comprehensive-model method because of considering the intrinsical uncertainty influence of basic factors and expert experiences.2 tabs,4 figs,8 refs.; 公安部重点攻关计划项目(20052DGGBJSJ002)
语种	中文 ; 中文
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/36885]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张雷,李一兵,ZHANG Lei,等. 冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法[J],2010, 2010.
APA	张雷,李一兵,ZHANG Lei,&LI Yi-bing.(2010).冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法..
MLA	张雷,et al."冗余信息交通事故再现可靠性分析的综合模型法".(2010).

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