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	Bayes method to estimate human error probabilities
	He Xuhong ; Tong Jiejuan ; Huang Xiangrui
	2010-05-10 ; 2010-05-10
关键词	Practical Theoretical or Mathematical/ Bayes methods error statistics human factors log normal distribution maximum likelihood estimation nuclear power stations/ Bayes method human error probability estimation historical nuclear power plant data plant situations lognormal prior distribution Beta prior distribution maximum likelihood value posterior distribution error factor/ B8220 Nuclear power stations and plants B0240Z Other topics in statistics
中文摘要	Bayes method was used to modify human error probabilities based on historical nuclear power plant data to reflect the specific plant situations. The lognormal prior distribution was transformed to the Beta prior distribution for the analysis. Analysis of the effect of historical data on the results showed that the posterior distribution mainly reflects the prior information when data is sparse, but with increasing amounts of plant data, the posterior distribution is more shaped by plant experience with the posterior distribution values concentrating to the maximum likelihood value of the plant data with reductions of the posterior distribution error factor.
语种	英语 ; 英语
出版者	Tsinghua Univ. Press ; China
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/22797]
专题	清华大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He Xuhong,Tong Jiejuan,Huang Xiangrui. Bayes method to estimate human error probabilities[J],2010, 2010.
APA	He Xuhong,Tong Jiejuan,&Huang Xiangrui.(2010).Bayes method to estimate human error probabilities..
MLA	He Xuhong,et al."Bayes method to estimate human error probabilities".(2010).

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