| 出境旅游、服务贸易与经济发展水平关系的国际比较 | |
| 雷平 ; 施祖麟 ; LEI Ping ; SHI Zu-lin | |
| 2010-05-12 ; 2010-05-12 | |
| 关键词 | 出境旅游 服务贸易 发展水平 大国效应 国际比较 outbound tourism service trade development level big country effect international comparison F592 F224 |
| 其他题名 | International Comparison of the Relationship between Outbound Tourism,Service Trade and Economic Development Level |
| 中文摘要 | 出境旅游是经济发展到一定阶段的必然产物,但当前学术界关于出境旅游的发展对服务贸易的影响存在争议。利用44个主要旅游国家与地区的面板数据,本文发现出境旅游率随人均GDP呈指数上升,整体上看我国还远没有到出境旅游爆发增长的阶段;由于出境旅游与人口规模负相关的大国效应影响,我国出境旅游长期将自动保持在一个温和的范围内。根据趋势分析本文还发现,出境旅游的增长速度将会高于入境旅游的增长速度,期望通过入境旅游的进一步增长弥补出境旅游的外汇与消费漏出缺乏国际经验的支持。根据对33个国家和地区截面数据的分析,本文发现随着经济发展水平的提高,对外贸易中入境旅游地位下降与出境旅游地位的上升是国际普遍规律,这不仅反映了国民生活水准的提高,也是产业结构升级与外贸结构优化的体现,为此担忧、采取行动阻碍是没有必要的,甚至可能是错误的。; Outbound tourism is the outcome of economic development to a certain stage.However,currently there are controversies over the impact of outbound tourism on service trade among academic circle.By using panel data of 44 major tourism countries and areas,the paper finds that outbound tourism rate rises along with the rise of GDP per capita.Overall,China is still at a moderate stage in terms of outbound tourism.Because of the effect of a big country,China's outbound tourism will be automatically kept in a moderate range.In accordance with the trend analysis,the paper also finds that outbound tourism will grow faster than inbound tourism.Any expectation to further increase inbound tourism to make up for the drain of foreign exchange and consumption lacks the support of international experience.With the rise of economic development level,the decline of inbound tourism and the rise of outbound tourism in foreign trade are international universal regulations.This not only reflects the rise of our living standard,but also embodies the upgrade of industrial structure and optimization of foreign trade structure.It might be wrong to worry about it or to take some preventive measures. |
| 语种 | 中文 ; 中文 |
| 内容类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 源URL | [http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/29628]  |
| 专题 | 清华大学 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 雷平,施祖麟,LEI Ping,等. 出境旅游、服务贸易与经济发展水平关系的国际比较[J],2010, 2010. |
| APA | 雷平,施祖麟,LEI Ping,&SHI Zu-lin.(2010).出境旅游、服务贸易与经济发展水平关系的国际比较.. |
| MLA | 雷平,et al."出境旅游、服务贸易与经济发展水平关系的国际比较".(2010). |
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