四川省气候复杂、生态系统多样,研究气候变化下该区域物种的分布及迁移规律,可以为区域生物多样性保护提供科学依据。在中等排放情景rcp4.5气候变化条件下,选择128个物种作为气候敏感代表种,利用最大熵模型(Max Ent)预测未来50 a和100 a四川省物种数量及分布变化,分析了物种迁移特征。结果表明:气候变化下,四川省大部分区域物种多样性呈增加趋势,特别是川西高原物种数量增加明显;物种的适宜栖息地面积将发生改变,其中58%物种表现为增加趋势,42%呈减少趋势;不同物种栖息地变化程度有所差异,大部分物种将向高纬度、高海拔移动,所占比例分别为54%和60%;在海拔1 200~1 800 m和3 300~4 500 m区间物种多样性变动较剧烈,应该优先关注和保护。 更多还原
 

Sichuan Province of Cina possesses rich biodiversity and various climate types．The impacts of climate change on species distribution are of increasing concern，study on the distribution and migrating disciplinavian of species in Sichuan Province under the climate change can provide scientific basis for regional biodiversity conservation．In this study，according to simulate the climate change，with a medium emission scenario rcp4.5，we selected 128 representative climate sensitive species，and used the maximum entropy model to predicte the variation characteristics of number and spatial distribution，and recognitedthe migration characteristicsin the next 50 years and 100 in Sichuan Province．The results showed that: Species diversity in Sichuan will increase with migration of species，especially in Western Sichuan Plateau will changed more strongly． As the suitable habitats for specieschanged，it is expected that the suitable habitats of about 58% of species will present a increasing trend，and others 42% will present a declining trend from 2000 to 2100． most species in Sichuan will show horizontal and vertical migration trend with climate changes，about 54% and 60% will migrate to higher latitudes and higher elevations． The areas which from 1 200 ～1 800 m and 3 300～4 500 m changed more stronglyshould be given priority attention and protection．