针对降雨气象频繁造成次生地质灾害进而诱发输电线路停运的现状,建立一种考虑降雨诱发次生地质灾害的电网风险评估方法。首先分析降雨诱发地质灾害影响电力设施故障率的途径;结合气象和地质环境遥感数据估算诱发次生地质灾害行为的关联参数,并量化次生地质灾害造成输电杆塔变形及线路断线的概率。基于蒙特卡洛模拟和最优削减负荷模型,结合风险理论构建指标,以此为依据识别降雨气象诱发次生地质灾害下系统薄弱环节。综合考虑系统网架结构和电网实时运行状态,给出实际应用时所提模型中数据采集、数据处理和信息反馈等关键技术实现框架。对某区域电网进行算例分析验证了所提方法的合理性和有效性。仿真分析结果表明,系统运行风险随着灾害范围扩大、严重程度增加而逐步增加,与实际情况吻合。

According to the situation that rainfall weather frequently causes secondary geological hazards, leading to local transmission line outage, a risk evaluation method is established. Firstly, the ways of electrical equipment failure probability influenced by secondary geological hazards caused by rainfall weather are analyzed. Then, according to meteorological and geological monitoring data, related parameters of geological hazards are evaluated and fault probability of tower deformation and line breakage of transmission line is quantified. Based on Monte Carlo simulation and optimal load shedding model, risk indicators are built using risk theory to recognize weakness of power system under geological hazards. Considering structure and operating status of power grid, framework of data collection and processing and information feedback is put forward in the proposed method. Finally, the proposed analytical method is verified with simulations of a certain regional power grid. Results show that power system risk gradually increases with scope expansion and hazard severity increase.