A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23

	A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23
	Li KJ(李可军)1,2; Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2,3,4 ; Wang, JX2 ; Liu, XH 5; Yun, HS 6; Xiong, SY 7; Liang HF(梁红飞)1,2 ; Zhao HJ(赵海娟)1,2
刊名	ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
	2002-09
卷号	392 期号:1 页码:301-307
关键词	Sun : activity Sun : sunspots Sun : general
ISSN号	0004-6361
通讯作者	Li, KJ (reprint author), Yunnan Observ, YN-650011 Yunnan, Peoples R China.
产权排序	第一完成单位
英文摘要	In this paper, we investigate the prospect of using previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures to determine future behavior in an ongoing cycle, with specific application to cycle 23, the current sunspot cycle. We find that the gross level of solar activity (i.e., the sum of the total number of sunspots over the course of a sunspot cycle) associated with cycle 23, based on a comparison of its first several years of activity against similar periods of preceding cycles, is such that cycle 23 best compares to cycle 2. Compared to cycles 2 and 22, respectively, cycle 23 appears 1.08 times larger and 0.75 times as large. Because cycle 2 was of shorter period, we infer that cycle 23 also might be of shorter length (period less than 11 years), ending sometime in late 2006 or early 2007.
学科主题	Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
类目[WOS]	Astronomy & Astrophysics
研究领域[WOS]	Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]	MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ; BEHAVIOR
收录类别	SCI ; EI
原文出处	http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2002/34/aah3299/aah3299.html
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000177868700030
内容类型	期刊论文
源URL	[http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6050]
专题	云南天文台_太阳物理研究组
作者单位	1.Yunnan Observatory, YN650011, China 2.National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, China 3.Academy of Graduates, CAS, Beijing, China 4.Department of Physics, Jingdezhen Comprehensive College, Jiangxi, China 5.Department of Physics, Jiaozuo Educational College, Henan, China 6.Astronomy Program, SEES, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea 7.Library, Yunnan Observatory, Yunnan, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li KJ,Zhan LS,Wang, JX,et al. A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23[J]. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,2002,392(1):301-307.
APA	Li KJ.,Zhan LS.,Wang, JX.,Liu, XH.,Yun, HS.,...&Zhao HJ.(2002).A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23.ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,392(1),301-307.
MLA	Li KJ,et al."A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23".ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 392.1(2002):301-307.