| 题名 | 四川巴达高速公路K76+025～+588滑坡发生机理及动态分析研究 |
| 作者 | 郭江 |
| 学位类别 | 硕士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2015 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院大学 |
| 授予地点 | 北京 |
| 导师 | 王全才 |
| 关键词 | 滑坡 成因机制 稳定性分析 滑坡监测 预测预报 |
| 其他题名 | Research and analysis on the mechanism occurrence and dynamic of landslide on Bada K76+025 ~ +588 Sichuan highway |
| 学位专业 | 防灾减灾工程及防护工程 |
| 中文摘要 | 我国是世界上地质灾害最严重的国家之一，在各类灾害中滑坡类灾害最为常见，且滑坡灾害往往会造成严重的经济损失，威胁人民生命财产安全，尤其是高速公路上的大型复杂滑坡更是如此。对这类影响较大的特殊滑坡，若能及时深入科学地认识和研究，不仅是建设单位的迫切需求，同时也是滑坡学较为关注的方向之一。四川巴达高速公路K76+025～+558滑坡就是危及该公路大田嘴大桥两桥头安全的双滑坡。 在深入了解区域和滑坡本底条件、诱发因素的前提下，以多方位的立体动态信息为依据，建立和借助一定的模型和方法，对该滑坡的发育、发生、稳定现状和发展机理开展研究，为地方单位提供科学依据。本文的主要研究内容及研究成果为： （1）滑坡成因机理研究。巴达高速公路老滑坡的形成主要受地层岩性、地质构造、地形地貌、坡体结构及气象与水文条件等多因素的影响，其形成是这些因素共同作用的结果。而巴中岸滑坡体内新滑坡的形成则与连续的强降雨及人类工程活动密切相关。 （2）滑坡稳定性分析。运用层次分析法对巴中岸滑体进行稳定性定性分析，得出该滑体处于一般稳定与不稳定之间，偏向于不稳定，需要采取工程治理措施。采用极限平衡理论的传递系数法对两滑坡进行稳定性定量分析，结果表明在天然状态下，巴中岸滑坡欠稳定，达州岸滑坡稳定，而在暴雨状态下，两滑坡均不稳定。 （3）滑坡监测方案研究。针对巴达高速公路滑坡现阶段的变形特征，设计了一套符合该滑坡实际情况的特色监测方案，采取地表、深部、地下水全方位立体监测方案。对监测信息进行处理和分析，并结合理论分析，得出目前该滑坡处于基本稳定状态。 （4）滑坡预测模型研究。建立滑坡监测数据变形分析模型，本文采用巴中岸滑坡深部位移监测数据建立全数据GM（1，1）模型和新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型，从模型预测结果来看，模型群精度等级均为1级，且建模数据越少、越新，模型精度越好。表明灰色系统理论对监测资料的处理是可行而准确有效的，使其对事故的发生具有良好的预见性。 |
| 英文摘要 | China is one of the world's most serious geological disasters in the country, landslide disaster are the most commoninall kinds ofdisasters , and landslide disaster often causes serious economic losses, threats to people's life and property safety,especially the large-scale complex landslide on the highway. On such special landslide, if we can have a timely and in-depth scientificly research, it is not only the urgent needs of the construction unit, but also is a direction of the study of landslide which needa pay more attention to. Bada highway K76+025~+558 landslide in Sichuan has two landslides which is endangering the two bridgeheads’ safety of Datianzui highway bridge. Based on in-depth understanding about the area,background conditions and induced factorsof the landslide , we use multiaspect dynamic information to establish a model and method, which is used to study the occurrence, development, present situation and development of landslide, so that we can provide a scientific basis for the local unit. The main research contents and results of research on this topic are: （1）Landslide origin mechanism.The formation of the old landslide on the highway Bada is mainly affected by many factors ,such as the lithology,geological structure, topography, slope structure and meteorological and hydrological conditions, its formation is the result of these factors.And the formation of new landslide in Bazhong bank landslide is closely related with the continuous heavy rainfall and human engineering activities. （2）Landslide stability analysis. The use of AHP to analyze and evaluate the stability of the bank landslide in Bazhong, we know that the landslide is between in stable and unstable, tend to be unstable, which should be taken engineering measures. Analysis of the stability of the landslide by using transfer coefficient method based on limit equilibrium theory, the results show that in the natural state, the landslides of dazhou is stable, and the landslides of bazhong is less stable, in the case of heavy rain, the two landslides are instability. （3）Study on landslide monitoring scheme.According to the deformation characteristics of the landslide at the present stage of highway Bada, we designed a set of landslide monitoring scheme to consistent with the actual situation, that is taken a full range of three-dimensional monitoring scheme,which include the surface displacement, displacement, deep groundwater monitoring. Processing and analysis of monitoring information, combined with the theoretical analysis,we know that the landslide is in steady state currently. （4）Reserch on the prediction model of Landslide. To establish the analysis model of deformation monitoring data of landslide, this paper uses the deep displacement monitoring data of Bazhong bank landslide to establish a full data GM (1, 1) model and a new supersedes the old data GM (1, 1) model. According to the predicted results, precision grade of model groups were 1, and the modeling datas are less and more new, the precision of the model is the better. The result Shows that the grey system theory is feasible and effective to deal with the monitoring data,then the the grey system theory has a good predictability for the accident. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 内容类型 | 学位论文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/14120]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 郭江. 四川巴达高速公路K76+025～+588滑坡发生机理及动态分析研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学. 2015. |
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