摘要:水力类泥石流是泥石流的一大类型,一旦暴发可造成巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,因而其起动机理和预报是泥石流学科的前沿课题.尽管国内外研究在该领域取得了显著进展,但是由于该类泥石流起动机理的复杂性,已有的预报模型和其实用性仍然有相当的差距.概述了水力类泥石流起动与预报的国内外研究进展,提出未来该研究方向的主要研究内容.未来研究内容应该包括从环境地质学、地貌学和水文学角度认识水力类泥石流的起动成因和过程及相应的临界条件;研究以水文学为主线的水力类泥石流的起动机理和模型,并提出水力类泥石流的起动水文参数临界条件;建立以临界流量法和分布式水文模型为理论依据的水力类泥石流的预报途径和方法.该研究对加强水力类泥石流起动机理及预测预报的创新性研究和促进学科发展具有重要的科学价值和实践意义.

Hydraulic-driven debris flow is an important type of debris flows.It can cause huge damage and death-tolls once it occurred.Therefore,the study of initiation mechanism and prediction of the debris flows is fore-research project for debris flow science.Although some progressive studies for this area are obtained,the prediction model can not be actually used for early warning due to complicated initiation mechanism of debris flows initiated by channel runoff.This paper reviews the present research status of initiation mechanism and prediction of hydraulic-driven debris flows and puts forward further study expectation.The proposed further study contents are involved with the following aspects: firstly,understand initiation causes,processes and related threshold criterion from points of environmental geology,geomorphology and hydrology;secondly,study initiation mechanism model of debris flows initiated by channel runoff by hydraulic analysis and present threshold criterion of hydrologic parameters for the debris flow initiation;thirdly,establish prediction methodology of hydraulic-driven debris flow initiation based on theories of threshold discharge method and distributive hydrologic model.This project possesses scientific values and practice significations for strengthening the innovation study of initiation mechanism and prediction model of hydraulic-driven debris flows and for promoting further development of this area.